A
NARRATIVE VALUE
Certainty
●●○ medium
ABCDEFG
There is no confirmed −; independently verified + decide the position (A). No unreachable strike-through.= non-additive meter
As of: 2026-Q4Status: ActiveCeiling reason: No confirmed −
History2026-Q4AHistory grows each quarter
Blue Ventures: The fishers themselves decide when to stop fishing. The letter is A; certainty is medium. Unconfirmed concerns are placed under “Watching.” (As of 2026-Q4; estimate based on public information.)
Main narrative
In 2003, in the village of Andavadoaka in south-west Madagascar, the marine biologist Alasdair Harris and others began an experiment: closing an octopus fishing ground for a period of some months. The villagers decided the area and the dates themselves, and enforced them. When it reopened, the octopus had grown and the catch exceeded what it had been before the closure.
The result traveled from village to village. Blue Ventures now works with more than 500 coastal communities in Madagascar, East Africa, South-East Asia and Central America, supporting over 20,000 square kilometers of locally managed marine areas (LMMAs). Peer-reviewed assessment found household incomes in participating villages rose 136% and catch per fisher per day rose 87%. Mangrove restoration and carbon-credit finance have followed. Conservation is not imposed from outside: the fishers themselves decide when to stop fishing — and keeping that order of things is the core of the method.
One person’s story (N1)
+ A single story
On the day the closure ended, the villagers went back to the same shallows and found the octopus grown and the catch higher than before they had closed it. The area and the dates had been set not by an outside conservation body but by the people who fish there. Peer-reviewed assessment found household incomes in participating villages rose 136% and catch per fisher per day rose 87%. The result traveled from village to village, and more than 500 coastal communities now manage over 20,000 square kilometers of locally managed marine area. Nature of sources: independent (peer-reviewed paper).
Source nature: PLOS ONE / Blue Ventures / T1 academic / peer-reviewed. Positive effects are not used to offset negatives.
Positive / negative effects
+ effects
- The positive side of this assessment rests on the single story (N1) above and its source. A per-item ledger of positive effects has not yet been compiled for this organization.T1 academic / peer-reviewed
Watching (unconfirmed; not counted in the assessment)- Reproducibility of the method and persistence after funding ends
- carbon-credit accounting and distribution
Looking ahead (not included in the assessment)- Expanding locally managed marine areas and transferring the method to other organizations.
A second look
The effect of temporary closures depends on the species and conditions and does not reproduce in every fishery. Whether local management continues after external funding withdraws is a long-term question. Carbon-credit finance is also a field where the fairness of accounting and distribution remains contested.
Sources
+N1PLOS ONE / Blue Ventures｜2026｜🔗
How to read this assessment
A Independently verified +, with no confirmed −
B Leans +, with independent backing
C Mixed. A confirmed − sets the ceiling, or much is unverified
D A serious confirmed − sets the ceiling
E A serious − reaches the core of the organization
F Serious and systemic, with little redeeming +
G Only extreme cases
Out of scope An entity whose core purpose is illegal
On hold Independent evidence is scarce on both + and −
- Reachable upper bound (ceiling): a confirmed − sets the ceiling, and independently verified + decide the position within it. + do not cancel out −.
- The weight of evidence is not symmetric: only confirmed − are counted; the volume of disputes or allegations goes under “Watching.” + are counted from independent evidence, while an organization’s own PR is treated as “reference.”
- Size is not value: scale is not used in the assessment. Matters that stay within money or competition—investors, shareholders, sanctions, trade secrets—are also excluded.
- The letter (assessment) and certainty (how reliable the information is) are separate axes.
This is a translation; the Japanese version is authoritative. The assessments here are generated automatically by AI based on published criteria. The operator does not alter individual results. Because they are AI-generated they may contain errors, and they are opinion and commentary, not statements of fact. Where evidence is insufficient, the entry is marked “On hold.” Requests for correction are accepted via the form.
Terms: Narrative Value = an assessment (A–G) of the distance between the narrative an organization tells and its reality / Ceiling meter = a visualization of the reachable upper bound / Watching = unconfirmed matters not counted / Protected stakeholders = people, animals, nature, and future generations. | Generated by: AI | As of: 2026-Q4 | Back to top